GSE Lab
Geopolitical Scenario Engine
Geopolitical scenario-engine research: learning history, verified episodes, walk-forward validation, prospective calibration and 24h / 7d / 30d horizon comparison.
GSE prediction · 30 days: awaiting the latest daily frozen forecast.
Open GSE Lab →- The Arctic Shortcut Can the Northern Sea Route rewire Europe–Asia trade — or does it replace one chokepoint with a new dependency?
- The Baltic's invisible front Cables, the shadow fleet and coercion below the threshold of war. Where accident ends and attribution begins.
- Russia under drone pressure: fuel, harvests and grain exports Refineries, fuel shortages, the Sea of Azov and the likely impact on global wheat prices.
- Black Sea — a nexus of interests Grain, energy and strategic chokepoints: why this basin moves prices and geopolitical risk.
- Rare earths — cycles & geopolitics Processing bottlenecks, magnets, industrial policy and competition over critical supply chains.
- Shifting world order – decline of the Hegemon? From the US-led liberal order to a more multipolar system: what changes, what stays and why it matters.
- US–China after 2025 Managed separation, 2025–2030 scenarios, supply chains and Europe's strategic position.
Book-cover photo credits
Arctic: Quintin Soloviev / Wikimedia Commons; Baltic cable ship: LukaszKatlewa / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0; Moscow refinery: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0; Black Sea grain terminal: IvanStudenov / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Bayan Obo: Squishyhippie / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; US Capitol: Wikimedia Commons / public domain; semiconductor wafer: DrHughManning / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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Strategic analysis from established international-affairs institutions and specialists.