Nasdaq
Future Long View for technology, growth, AI capex and megacap concentration.
Long View
The strategic investing layer: macro, regime, liquidity, valuation and scenarios. We update the thesis when the risk distribution changes — not after every daily move.
S&P 500 · House View
13 Sep 2026Earnings versus the cost of capital
Strong EPS revisions support equities, but oil above $100 and the 10Y near 5% force a downgrade of the 6M stance to neutral.
1Mneutral-defensive
6Mneutral ↓
12Mmildly positive
Conviction4 / 10lower confidence than 2 Aug; the scenario distribution is wider
Macroslowdown + supply shockQ2 GDP +1.5%, real PCE flat in July, energy-driven price pressure rising
Valuation~19.2× forward P/Echeaper than before, but demanding with the 10Y around 5%
BRACE-SPX spx-orthogonal-core-v6strict gate: not passed · no champion
Shadow warm-up: 30 / 70 · 40 remaining · latest market date: 11 Sep 2026. BRACE remains research-only and is not treated as a public directional signal.
What changed since the August House View
Macro risk ↑Brent above $100, 10Y around 4.93%, PPI 5.4% y/y and renewed repricing of Fed-hike risk.
Corporate fundamentals ↑Q3 bottom-up EPS was revised up rather than typically cut; the earnings engine is still working.
Conclusion: 6M ↓ to neutralNot bearish: earnings are too strong. Not bullish: the discount rate and energy shock are too restrictive.
S&P 500
Full House View: 1M / 6M / 12M bias, earnings versus macro, 6–12M scenarios, thesis-change gates and BRACE-SPX read-through.
EUR/USD
Future strategic FX view — separate from Daily EUR/USD Spot and Weekly Positions.
BTC/USD
Future strategic crypto view — regime, liquidity and structural risk.
Long View describes scenarios and the strategic distribution of risk; it is not an execution signal or investment recommendation.